Why Did the Angels Sign Joe Blanton? An Investigation...

I wrote a piece up for Halo Hangout exploring the reasons behind the Angels signing Joe Blanton. Conclusion? We'll you'll just have to read it. Here are some highlights.

In his career, Joe Blanton has an ERA of 4.37 and gives up an average of just under 10 hits per nine innings. His career WHIP is 1.33 while his career strikeout rate per nine innings is 6.1. His home run per nine inning rate is in the bottom 10 of the major leagues over the last two years. In other words, Joe Blanton seems to be your quintessential average-to-below-average pitcher.

but...

Sullivan also pointed out that Blanton’s velocity has actually been increasing. I will add that his strikeouts per nine innings ratio has also increased over the course of his career. From 2006-2008, Blanton was averaging 5.4 strike outs per nine innings. From 2009 to 2012 that has risen to 7.4.

and...

Also, Joe Blanton is durable. Since 2004, Blanton has hit the DL only three times. Once because of an abdomen strain and twice because of an elbow impingement which he tried to come back too early from.

Read much more via Halo Hangout.

Dan Haren and 2013 ZiPS

"Should the Angels have re-signed Dan Haren?" is a question that will might get asked some time in the 2013 season. Angels fans hope it doesn't come up. That's because the Los Angeles Angels starting rotation for 2013 has a lot of question marks and doesn't look particularly stronger than 2012.

Over at Fangraphs, they are releasing Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. Today they dropped projections for the Washington Nationals where Dan Haren was projected to have a 2.9 WAR in 2013 with an ERA+ of 102 and a FIP of 3.50.

All improvements from his disappointing 2012 season and not far off from his career numbers.  If Haren's numbers in 2013 are similar to these projections, the Nationals would have a nice deal in Haren paying $4.4 per win for Haren and the Angels might be wondering if they should have re-signed him. Especially considering that they will be paying around 7.5 million for PECOTA's estimated 0.5 WARP for Joe Blanton in 2013.

What the ZiPS projection doesn't take into consideration is Dan Haren injury concerns. That being said, the Nationals were in all likelihood were looking at he same medical reports as the Angels.

This is also the second time Jerry Dipoto has rid Dan Haren from a team as a general manager. Maybe Haren is just a mean, mean man. Probably not. But maybe.

By jettisoning Haren, the Angels were able to add depth to their rotation and presumably add financial room to buff up their bullpen and add Josh Hamilton. Still, the question marks that existed with Haren and Santana have seemed to have just been transferred over to Blanton and Hanson.

I'll return to this after Fangraphs released the Angels ZiPS projections.

Angels Acquire Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales

 It's rare to see an inter-division trade but at first glance this makes sense for both teams. Mariners want a big bat and the Angels needed to fill another rotation spot. Plus, each player becomes a free agent at the end of next season.

It also, somewhat, coincides with my assumption that the Angels probably weren't aching to move Vernon Wells. The return would be minimal, the Angels would have to cover most (if not all) of his salary and it would suddenly make Peter Bourjos more valuable to the Angels.

This also means that Mark Trumbo will most likely be the Angels starting DH.  In 2012, Trumbo put up a .310/.376/.571 in 22 games at DH. 

The acquisition of Vargas also reunites him with Jered Weaver who he played with at Cal State University of Long Beach. 

More later!

If Angels Move Vernon Wells, Does Peter Bourjos Stay?

There's rumors that the Phillies are possibly interested in Vernon Wells. Which is great...if it's true. And it doesn't seem very likely. Then again, the Angels signing Josh Hamilton didn't seem very likely either. So who knows.

If Vernon Wells does get moved to Philadelphia (or elsewhere), the Angels will likely have to pay a considerable part (if not all) of his remaining contract. They also, would have one less outfielder.

"Who cares?" You might say. As most people who watch baseball know, Vernon Wells is terrible. Reportedly a nice guy, but terrible. In the last two years with this Angels his OPS+ is 86 with an overall WAR of -0.3 (according to Baseball-Reference).

However, if the Angels sent him packing, that would leave Peter Bourjos as presumably, the only outfielder on the bench. Other options include Howie Kendrick who has played some outfield and could be spelled by Andrew Romine at 2B. There is also Kole Calhoun who had four hits in 25 plate-appearances last year, the recently acquired Scott Cousins and Travis Witherspoon.

These options could conceivably be just as valuable to the Angels as Vernon Wells. However, not as much as Peter Bourjos. If Wells leaves, Bourjos suddenly becomes a little more valuable to the Angels. Especially with an injury-prone Hamilton in left-field.

Which begs the question: with Wells not exactly blocking any young, phenoms in the minors, is it all that necessary for the Angels to move him? Whatever they receive in return will be minimal and they will likely have to pay out the rest of his contract anyway.

If Wells does leave, it seems like it would be prudent to keep Bourjos. He's cheap, under team control until 2017, speedy, and offers excellent defense.

If the Angels do move Wells and Bourjos, it would likely benefit them to try and get at least a replacement-level fourth outfielder with considerable big league experience or upside. Otherwise, the Angels will look pretty thin when Hamilton needs a day-off or if Trumbo goes through another second-half slump.

I am not sure I like an Angels outfield without Bourjos.  Even if he is sitting on the bench until late into the game.

Sure would miss this...

Angels 2013 Bullpen and Josh Hamilton: Following the Money and (Projected) WARP

As delved into yesterday, the Angels starting rotation has received an overhaul this off-season. It's a cheaper rotation but one by many accounts that seems weaker.

On the other hand, the bullpen looks a bit stronger with the addition of Sean Burnett and Ryan Madson. Here's the players gone from the Angels bullpen and their projected WARP (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus) as well as their salary from last year versus who the Angels acquired.


Jordan Walden: 0.1 ($495K -- Arbitration eligible)
Hawkins: 0.5 ($3 million)
Isringhausen: 0.1 ($650K)
Takahashi: 0.7 ($4.2 million)

Sean Burnett: 0.4 ($4 million)
Ryan Madson: 1.2 ($3.5 million)

Replacing four relievers that cost the Angels a little over $8 million with 2 that cost the Angels 7.5 million for 0.4 more wins coupled with the likelihood you can find two other relievers already under team control who can put up greater than a 0.1 WAR and…hey…not such a bad deal.

Then there's that Josh Hamilton deal, though, putting the Angels payroll at a record high for the Angels. Like all the Angels big contracts, Hamilton's is back-loaded. He'll make $16 million next year.

Yet, in a 2013 vacuum, the first year doesn't seem so bad.

Torii Hunter will make $13 million next year and BPro expects a 1.8 WARP or $7.2 million per win. While Hamilton's contract is much longer and bigger, the Angels will only pay $4.1 million per win for Hamilton in 2013. Angels paying Hamilton $3 million more in 2013 than what Torii Hunter will make but he is estimated to give them almost two more wins than Hunter averaging out to 4.1 million per win. Sure, we are just taking into consideration 2013 but in terms of "bang for their buck" over the course of the first year of the contract, the Angels come out good.

Let's just let that sink in and try and block out what they will be paying him in 2016 when he is estimated to put up a WARP of 2.3 and will be making $30 million. Let's go inflation!

The Angels have already spent a lot of it. Should they make a trade and add a starter or roll the dice with what they got? With the addition of Hamilton, the payroll will probably be at a record high for the Halos. Everyone is assuming that a move will be mad but can they Halos even afford it?

In all likelihood they can. Do they want to spend that kind of money right now is another question.

Angels 2013 Starting Rotation: Following the Money and (Projected) WARP

Let's admit it: the Angels starting rotation is still something of concern. Actually, that's not admitting anything. That's pretty much common knowledge. And its fueling the pervasive assumption that the Angels off-season (post-Hamilton) has not ended and that Jerry Dipoto and company will make another move before opening day to acquire another starter.

In a search for determining how much a win is worth in the free agent market I decided to delve into Baseball Prospectus' current PECOTA** projections and couple it with the amount of money the Angels will be paying their current starting rotation. There's nothing too heady here, just simple addition and inclusion of some projections.

So far, the Angels have added Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton to their starting rotation and lost Ervin Santana and Dan Haren. Here's these four players projected WARP from BP along with their 2013 salary.

Dan Haren: 3.5 ($13 million)
Ervin Santana: 1.3 ($13 million)
Tommy Hanson: 3.6 (estimated. 1 million -- arbitration eligible)
Joe Blanton: 0.5 ($7.5 million)

At first glance that seems like a bit of a steal. Even if you include the $4.5 million the Angels paid to get rid of Haren and Santana, the Angels are paying $21 million less for players that will give them an estimated 0.7 less wins. Or they went from paying $5.41 million for a win to %2.07 million. So the Angels replaced two pitchers with slightly less comparable pitchers but saved $21 million dollars. Not bad some may say.

Oh wait. We forgot to include Zack Greinke. Drats!

Here's what the Angels rotation would have cost along with their estimated WARP if they had kept the rotation as is versus what it is now.

Jered Weaver: 3.5 ($16 million)
Zack Greinke: 3.5 (19 million)
CJ Wilson: 3.4 ($11 million)
Dan Haren: 3.5 (13 million)
Ervin Santana: 1.3 (13 million)

Jered Weaver: 3.5 ($16 million)
CJ Wilson: 3.4 ($11 million)
Tommy Hanson: 3.6 (Arbitration eligible - $1 million)
Joe Blanton: 0.5 ($7.5 million - 2013)
Garrett Richards: - 0.2 (400 K)

The current rotation is $36 million cheaper but is estimated to be just over 5 less wins. And despite saving money on the rotation, $23.5 million of it is going to recent bullpen acquisitions and Josh Hamilton in 2013. Leaving the skepticism that the Angels rotation is worse very much warranted. It's a cheaper rotation, though! But does that really matter if overall payroll still goes up?

I like the Madson and Burnett signings and I think Hanson for Walden was a good trade. However, it also feels as if the question marks have just been moved. While last year the Angels bullpen was of concern, now it's the rotation. In the course of a game, neither is mutually exclusive. Still, I am not sure you can bank on shoring up the deficiencies of a starting rotation with a strong bullpen or vice-versa. And even if we go strictly by WARP, the additions to their bullpen are estimated to not make up for the five win difference.

Tomorrow, I'll look a bit more into the money vs. WARP with the bullpen moves and the Hamilton signing.

**The PECOTA projections on Bpro are from the beginning of 2012. They haven't released the 2013 projections yet. So these will adjust.

That one Time Terry Collins Got Tossed...

Via Deadspin today:

One such circumstance arose when Terry Collins was leading the Angels in the late 1990s. After a questionable call, Collins sought out Scott and told the umpire, "You know what, Dale? I know that was the right call. But we [stink]. You have to run me."

Scott told Collins he needed him to display more emotion and conviction to warrant his dismissal, so the manager flung his hat and Scott pointed him to the exit.

Would love some footage of that.

In case your memory has blocked all terrible Angels years from your memory, Terry Collins managed the Angels for almost three seasons from 1997 to 1999. His record was 220 wins and 237 losses. His first two seasons he actually managed the Angels to winning seasons and a second place finish each time.

However, the dismal 1999 campaign and a bickering clubhouse led to Terry Collins stepping down at the request of then GM Bill Bavasi. Some dude named Joe Maddon took over for the rest of the season and led the team to a 19 and 10 finish. He was replaced by a former Dodger by the name of Mike Scioscia the following year.

As you can see, Collins was pretty torn up about it.

.

The Play for R.A. Dickey

Ken Rosenthal dropped a tweet today suggesting that all signs point towards the Mets trading R.A. Dickey. Dickey is in the last year of his contract (worth $5 million) with the Mets. Both sides were hoping to reach an agreement on an extension for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner but neither side has been able to reach an agreement.

Could the Angels make a move for Dickey? As I wrote earlier today, with the signing of Josh Hamilton, the Angels have a few trade chips by the name of Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales to work with. One could definitely foresee a Mets cente rfield occupied by Peter Bourjos instead of their current option, Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

However, another likely player for R.A. Dickey is division rivals Texas Rangers, who thus far this off-season have lost Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Dempster and Koji Uehara. The signing of Hamilton by the Angels might have put enough pressure on the Rangers to make a counter move. And if the Mets want prospects, the Rangers have a lot more to offer than the Angels.

If Dickey does sign with the Rangers, it’s not a total loss for the Angels. Dickey will only be under contract with them for one year. Plus, the price of some decent prospects that the Rangers would undoubtedly have to cough up could benefit the Angels in the long-run. It might be good for the Angels, even if they aren't entirely interested in Dickey, to keep their hat in the ring, just to drive up the price and keep the pressure on their division rivals.

Post-Hamilton Signing: What if the Angels Stand Pat?

The shock of the Los Angeles Angels signing Josh Hamilton yesterday might still be reverberating by the time they make their next move. With five outfielders now, the Angels are poised to make a trade, most likely for another starting pitcher. You can bet one thing: Jerry Dipoto's phone is ringing off the hook right now.

Who will get dealt, though? As Dave Cameron at Fangraphs wrote yesterday, your favored candidates are Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo or Kendrys Morales.

However, here's a possibility not too many seem to be considering: what if the Angels do nothing? Maybe Jerry Dipoto is ready for a vacation.

As Justin Millar pointed out yesterday, the Angels could sit Bourjos and Wells and trot out a lineup that would look something like this:

1.Mike Trout, CF
2.Erick Aybar, SS
3.Albert Pujols, 1B
4.Josh Hamilton, LF
5.Kendrys Morales, DH
6.Mark Trumbo, RF
7.Howie Kendrick, 2B
8.Alberto Callaspo, 3B
9.Chris Iannetta, C

Looks good, doesn't it?

What may be most impressive about this signing is that for a team with such a depleted farm system, Dipoto has somehow given himself a few valuable trading chips to work with while simultaneously adding depth to the Angels roster. As a result, Dipoto has leveraged some flexibility and power for his next move. If none of the offers left on his voice mail this off-season appeal to him, the Angels could stand pat and still look to be solid contenders in 2013.

The biggest concern right now for the Angels is still the starting pitching rotation which has fueled so much of the speculation that the Angels are not done this off-season. However, with such a potent offense, it's entirely a possibility that the Angels don't do anything and instead re-assess the pitching situation late into the first-half of the 2013 season.

Jerry Dipoto has a penchant for surprising everyone. Maybe this time his biggest shocker will be to do nothing else.

Josh Hamilton Reportedly Signs With the Angels

According to numerous reports, the Angels have signed outfielder Josh Hamilton to a five-year deal worth $125 million. There has been no official word yet from Hamilton or the Angels.

Upon hearing rumors earlier today that the Angels were going to sign Hamilton, my feelings on the deal were entirely predicated on the amount of years. Anything over four but especially over five would be risky.

Hamilton is a risk even at the reported five years they will sign him for but the Angels should expect good production from him for at least the first part of the contract. The important thing will be to keep him fresh, as Hamilton has a history of injury.

The deal also puts the Angels outfield into question seemingly making Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo or even Kendrys Morales valuable trading chips. There have been some rumors that the Angels are interested in R.A. Dickey. If they do trade either (or both) of these players, it most likely will be for pitching.

I'll write more as details emerge. Until then, here's a good question:

Spoke to talent evaluator earlier who said of #Angels, "If you're going to spend that kind of money, why not sign Greinke?"

— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) December 13, 2012

Also, I guess this makes my previous post today obsolete! Oh well...

The Payroll Doesn't Lie: Are the Angels Done This Off-Season?

The Angels payroll currently sits at around $133 million dollars. That includes estimated arbitration hearings scheduled for five players which Matt Swartz of MLBtraderumors.com estimates* will total to be $16 million. Include players making league minimum and the $4.5 million combined owed to Haren and Santana (yes, that gets counted!) and the Angels payroll, give or take a few million, sits around $20 million less than last year.

So clearly, the Angels are poised to make another off-season move, right?

GM Jerry Dipoto on whether #Angels will make any more major moves: "I don't feel like anything else is imminent, pressing or required."

— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) December 12, 2012

Welp, maybe not.

Yesterday, I pointed out that the Angels probably could have afforded Zack Greinke despite declining to make a real run at him. One possible reason as mentioned was owner Arte Moreno wanting to lessen the payroll for the 2013 season. Angels beat writer for MLB.com, Alden Gonzalez estimated that the Angels payroll would be $10-15 million dollars less from 2012. If Gonzalez is right, that would put the Angels payroll almost where they are right now.

Maybe that's the smart move. When looking ahead to 2014, the Angels do have six players eligible for arbitration. On the other hand, they also have three players -- Collaspo, Morales and Downs (possibly four with Madson) -- becoming free agents which would shed $8-12 million dollars off the current payroll.

Then again, in 2014 the Angels payroll actually spikes a bit due to the back-loaded contracts of Wilson and Pujols. And that doesn't include the year 2015, when Mike Trout becomes arbitration eligible. Which will all know will likely be one hell of a pay day. Of course, it will help that 2015 also is the year that Vernon Wells becomes a free agent.

Money, money, money. So many numbers to play with in such a long off-season.

Taking this all into consideration along with a new TV deal signed just last year, it's reasonable to assume that the Angels have the money to make another move this off-season, but it seems unlikely.

Here's Alden Gonzalez last night:

Don't take that to mean the Angels are immersed in talks to acquire Kyle Lohse or Anibal Sanchez or Ryan Dempster or Edwin Jackson or basically anybody at this point. They aren't.

But they do have some, albeit very little, flexibility.

Yeah. Don't count on it.

*This link leads to the Swartz's estimated outcomes of four Angels players eligible for salary arbitration prior to the acquisition of Tommy Hunter, who is also eligible. Swartz estimated a $4 million dollar outcome for Hunter which I included in my total.

Why the Angels Should Have Signed Zack Greinke

Over at Halo Hangout I wrote a piece wondering if the Angels would be better off not signing Zack Greinke. This was based off the premise that the Angels already had $92 million committed next year at the time and had committed $325 million to just two players last off-season. Would it be a good idea to really commit another 100 million dollar-plus contract?

I approached the piece thinking that it was clearly not the greatest idea, no matter how good Greinke is, to make such another long-term commitment. Numerous, big long-term contracts on a single team seems always unsustainable. However, after writing the piece it became clear to me that Dipoto's moves last off-season and during the season pointed towards a mentality that seemed focused on throwing all the chips in for a championship now. Which actually might not have been such a bad mentality given the current state of the Angels roster.

Even with the farm system gutted, the Angels currently have a mostly solid core roster of starting players. Going into this off-season, there seemed to only really be two areas that needed improvement: the bullpen and the back-end of the rotation. Santana was on his way out. The verdict on Haren was undetermined. Early into the off-season, though, it became clear Dipoto was blowing up the rotation by trading Santana and not re-signing Haren.

After these moves, the Angels had $92 million dollars in 2013 committed and four players who are arbitration eligible which estimating should cost the Angels $10-12 million and put the Angels payroll at roughly $100 million. Leaving them something to the effect of $50-55 million to spend this year. Assuming, Greinke got his desired 150 million over 7 years, that would be enough to sign him and a back-end rotation guy and maybe even some cheap bullpen arms.

Clearly, Dipoto had other ideas. As Greinke mentioned yesterday, talks with the Angels never really took off. Dipoto's priorities were elsewhere.

Why?

The Angels gave up three good prospects for Greinke, he' not injury plagued and there is nothing particularly worrying in his peripherals. With him signing elsewhere, the Angels get nothing in return. And more importantly, it looks like they could have afforded him. Why not make a real run at him?

It's hard to figure out what is going on in the Angels front-office. Everything in the past few years and with all the lucrative contracts that the Angels have been handing out, they are acting as if poised on winning now and willing to deal with the fallout of being financially constrained to aging players in their mid-30s later.

Which makes putting the brakes on spending now somewhat confusing. If you are going to be a big market team, then you commit yourself to making these type of deals.

One very real possibility is that Moreno wants to lower the payroll back to its 2011 level, decreasing it by $10-15 million. Still, does that doesn't coincide with the efforts over the past couple years. Perhaps, missing the playoffs the last three years has Moreno thinking of alternatives.

That being said, signing Greinke might have been one of the better and smarter long-term signings the Angels could have made. It would have solidified the top-end of the rotation for years to come. Instead, they are left with a questionable rotation full of injury-risk and don't seem particularly in any better shape than they were last year. Their farm system is hurting and as mentioned they received nothing from Greinke going elsewhere but a couple solid late, season months from him.

The off-season is long from over. Maybe Dipoto will go after another pitcher or make a big move. If not, the same question marks that were there last year still exist. They just seemed to be placed elsewhere now. A Greinke signing might have changed that.

Touché, Matt Kemp

I see the anomaly that is the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) team name is not lost on the players.

No he played in Anaheim! RT @okaystevie: @therealmattkemp dude no need to welcome him to LA you realize he played in LA last year?

— Matt Kemp (@TheRealMattKemp) December 11, 2012

Bad enough that the Dodgers take Greinke from the Angels. Now, Matt Kemp has to make fun of our team name!

Bryan Harvey's Moustache is Back!

I'm back!

This blog has been on hiatus after I dabbled in writing for Halo Hangout, a sports blog that is a part of Fansided. I might still write for them a bit. However, when it comes down to it, if I am going to write for free, I might as well do it on my own. More freedom, no commitments, and I can write the word "bullshit" without editing. *

My main inspiration for starting to just do my own thing comes from two other bloggers. One being Garrett Wilson and his prolific Monkey With A Halo site. The second comes from "enemy"** blog Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness which is run and written by the always insightful and excellent Mike Petriello. If these two can do what they do and still maintain a life then I can do!

Starting tomorrow, I am going to be blogging regularly here. Possibly daily (fingers-crossed). Until then here are some things I've written over at Halo Hangout while I've been away:

Expensive Center Field Free Agent Market Highlights Angels' Affordable Depth at Position

Are the Angels Better Off Not Signing Zack Greinke?

What if the Angels Made a Trade Like the Marlins?

Predicting Torii Hunter's 2013 Season (With the Help of Raul Ibanez)

*I don't really plan on using this word
**Only in the Los Angeles team rivalry sense